On November 20, primaries were held for the French political party Les Républicains (previously known as L’Union pour un mouvement populaire). France does not have a two-party system (although two parties, Les Républicains and Les Socialistes typically hold the power in government) and many different parties can present candidates for the presidential election in April. Because these parties can only present one candidate, they hold primaries to select who will represent their parties in the general election.

Like with the general election itself, if no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote, there is a run-off with the top two candidates. The run-off election will be held on November 27 (elections are always held on Sundays in France).

The results of the primary for Les Républicains were surprising. In a primary that pitted two former prime ministers against a former president, former president Nicolas Sarkozy did not receive enough of the votes to be selected by the party. He had previously been thought to be a strong candidate. The other two candidates–both former prime ministers–Alain Juppé and François Fillon came in second and first, respectively. Juppé had long been viewed as the frontrunner and his loss to Fillon by nearly 15 percentage points was surprising. Because Fillon received 44 percent of the vote, and was later endorsed by Sarkozy during his concession speech, many people believe that he will win the run-off election on November 27th and be a likely candidate for president.

The Socialist party primaries will be held on January 22, 2017. Three candidates are running for their party: incumbent president François Holland, prime minister Manuel Valls, and Arnaud Montebourg. Recent polling suggests that Socialist party voters are deeply divided between Valls and Holland. However, it is widely believed that the Socialist candidate will not win the general election because of current president Hollande’s deep unpopularity in France right now (in September, his approval rating hovered at 15 percent).

It is also widely believed that the other candidate likely to make it to a second round of voting in the general election is Marine Le Pen of the Front National party. The Front National is a nationalist party widely known for its opposition to immigration. The party has gained in popularity due to the refugee crisis and recent terrorist attacks in France, as have other nationalist, far-right parties in Europe.

Have you been following the recent primary in France? Who do you think will stand as candidates in the general election in April?